Vacant Land 2023


From Q1 to Q4 2023 land inventory consistently decreased then suddenly fell to the lowest I have ever seen in Q4.  This is likely due to an increase in speculation and will eventually cause a surge in inventory on new construction housing.  We went from Q1 2023 average of 41 lots to Q4 7 lots and now currently stand at only 3.  The average sale price was 40739 for the entire year and 44162 for Q4.  We had a 6.93% sale price increase from Q3 to Q4

New Construction 2023


3 bedroom housing inventory averaged 6 houses for the year vs 2022 average at 10.  Inventory is still low compared to historical metrics.  Price reductions were relatively the same as 2022 with 25 for 2023 vs 27 for 2022.  There were less sales compared with 2022 likely due to constrained inventory for most of 2023.  The average sale price was 365386.  When you compare Q4 2023 to Q4 2022 sale price average, sale price ratio average, DOM, price reductions, & inventory they all indicate still strong buyer demand.  So far that demand is continuing into 2024.  January 2024 has had 10 houses go under contract already.  The concern is the eventual potential sudden surge in speculation activity with the recent sudden drop in land inventory and the current 2024 elevated inventory levels from the 2023 average.  The current average list price is 391499 which is high when compared to historical metrics leading to a strain on affordability and likely price reductions in the future.

Existing Homes 2023


Inventory average in 2023 for 3 bedrooms was only 4 compared to 2022 average of 6.  Jan 2024 so far is at 4.  As long as existing inventory remains ultra low like this new construction will continue to be more of a likely candidate for buyers to seek their purchase.  Tracking existing inventory going forward is critical.

Permits 2023


The total permit count for 2023 was 131 vs 99 in 2022 a 32% increase.  The permit count in 2021 was 138 which was the highest recorded in my data set which starts from 2018 which that year only had 68.  Ainaloa has grown a lot since then.  Unfortunately, the 2023 permit count is very close to the record high and I believe we could easily match that or beat it in 2024 due to massive vacant land accumulation that I have never seen before as mentioned earlier.  I think you can see the obvious signal here of a strong potential of very high housing inventory to hit the market sooner than later.I estimate 93 permits of the 131 are speculative in nature. The average permitted living sq ft was 1173 for the year
This article was written by Brandon DeLima a local builder and entrepreneur.